[Homestead] Newsweek -- "A one point race" ?

bob ford bobford79 at yahoo.com
Thu Oct 23 19:03:57 EDT 2008


This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls some of you were mentioning.  The jest of it, I believe, is take them all with a grain of salt.  

But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this am , this could be setting up a big upset.  PA is almost 70% democrat by registration.  I thought it was over, maybe not. 

 Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing.  I don't think anyone on the list is old enough to remmber that, but this outcome could be similar.  But, with the economy, it should be a blow-out. 

 People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were more responsible for the mess than the dumb*ss repubs.  Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully throw many of them in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford

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"Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico Playbook and Mark Halperin's The Page--three of the main arbiters of Washington's conventional wisdom--are all linking to the latest national surveys from IBD ("close!") and AP-Gfk ("shock!"): they show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1 point (44-43), respectively.

 "The presidential race [has] tightened after the final debate," writes the AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL SHOWS VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media has any incentive to disagree.


Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain crushing Obama in the sub-25 demographic (IBD) and benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in evangelical turnout (AP). 

Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points among young voters and McCain isn't particularly popular with the born-again crowd, reasonable people--that is, those of us who actually want to figure out who's winning and by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't the best polls on which to base our sense of the race. 

But that raises the question: how should reasonable people be reading the polls? Here are three tips:................................."


http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx


      



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