[Homestead] More on Gold
cayadopi at yahoo.com
Tue Dec 30 16:29:57 EST 2008
<<<The often proffered notion that if you buy gold, you are locking in the value
of your assets at some stable point as currencies fall is just not true, has not
bee true these last few years.>>> Agree as to "locked in". All people do in purchasing gold (or any other bubbling asset) is to try to mitigate the loss purchasing power. How much you wind up locking in depends on the buy point and the sell point. There is no locked in value until the completion of the sell side. Some are better at that than others.
I also received those solicitations for me to buy this or that real estate, and just as many from realtors wanting to list my real estate for sale. Realtors want commissions. Some may have held property to own. But not most. Most just wanted the commission.
<<,But there are just as many people out there trying to SELL gold to the masses. >> If there is so much supply available, explain the 4-6 month delivery days now.
<<<I take it more as a sign that people can be suckered coming and going.>>>
That is because most people do not recognize correct buy/sell points. They buy after price has already made most of the move up. They don't believe people who understand what to look for and are able to do a very decent job of calling out moves before hand - the masses only believe it after the fact. They wait and wait and wait for proof, and when the proof is finally there, the masses pile in and the end is near. The masses do the same on the flip side - they ignore those very same people who said something was going to go up in price when they start warning the reversals back down are imminent. Yes, there is a sucker born every day.
<<<<If I intended to trade the beans for something else that might be a loose
comparison. But I am not. I store breans in order to eat them. Good times,
bad times, money up, gold down, etc. no matter what,. I intend on eating those
beans. They are neither for sale or for trade.>>>>
I think you miss that I discuss ways of storing excess production, and that the excess can be stored in many forms. People can store it in 5 years worth of dried beans, in cash, in extra land, in any form. Some people who have a lot of extra production year after year choose gold, silver, etc. Excess production at some point gets converted into those things that have intrinsic survival value.
You say you have raised 5x the amount of food needed, and a portion of that goes to feed animals for milk, meat, etc. And that your excess stores would never be for sale.
Assume for a moment you had no fiat cash issued from any country and no gold or silver (or on the flip side that people would no longer accept the currency offered). In the event that your cow died unexpectedly - do you really think that I believe that you would not take some of your excess production (stored in the form of 5x the amount of food needed) and trade it for another cow if you could find someone to trade with? You are just choosing to store your excess in one form versus another. I have no issue with that, and I most definitely do not argue with it.
<<<<gold bubble. If a bubble occurs and you are to retain or increase your assets
by means of holding onto gold until the proper time, you must discern when to
buy and when to sell the gold. At some time you have to convert the gold
back into cash or else see its "value" decrease.>>>>
We actually don't disagree, except for just choosing different words to say the same thing. People are supposed to use their brains to determine if there is any specific reason for owning gold, and for reasons to sell gold. The same thing actually applies to fiat cash - you have to know when to save it, and when saving it is a bad investment as opposed to spending it. You also have to use your brain to decide if there is a reason to leave "the city life" (meaning the way most people have lived in this country for decades) and make a change for the homesteading lifestyle with a near cashless goal. From what I can see, one motivation (not all, just one) in particular to choose leaving a "city life" would be when one perceives that money might not have the same value (regardless of form, i.e. paper fiat money or gold money) if one perceives shortages of supplies are on the horizon. What good does it to have $1 Million in the bank - if there
are no eggs to be purchased? That's when having hens ans roosters are worth more than $1 Million.
Let's say your goal is to grow food.
A gamble is made when there is NO possibility of increasing the odds in your favor.
If you set out mindlessly to grow food without any concept of watering needs, nutritional needs, crop rotation, soil temperatures, food storage, etc, you would be gambling. Mother nature would have the odds in her favor. When you use your mind, you increase the odds of success in your favor.
It is no different with anything else. Let's presume you have about 5 years of food stored, as well as the knowledge to continue to produce food without assistance from outside sources. And you continue to make whatever it is that you make and sell in exchange for fiat currency, and you are storing it in a large butter jar so to speak.
You are choosing to store that excess wealth in the form of a paper currency in the event you need to make an outside purchase. You are taking the risk, the gamble, that the paper currency that stores your excess wealth will continue to hold in purchasing power, or that you will be able to continue the sales of whatever it is that you sell.
Others might choose, after they have saved up the most important things (the things needed for survival) to store some in paper currency, and some in precious metal. They are spreading out their risk for their excess savings... hedging one against the other. You only hedge when the perceived risk becomes too great.
Funny you mention how in about 3 years we won't be able to recognize things. I tend to agree. I think since about 2003-2004 4 I was thinking in terms of 2013 that the changes in US would be either be significant or the masses would become more aware of the shift.
Interesting story about your grandparents and how they thought the worst was in 1931, and yet the worst lay ahead. The stock market lost a lot more than 40% in the Great Depression. (381 to 41 was roughly a 90% loss) http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19201940.html
The governments for the past 30 years, IMO, has been doing everything they can to make sure that those owning gold can't profit from it - via artificial price manipulation. Why do governments see gold as being such a threat?
<<<...a gold Double Eagle as a keepsake for the year gold was confiscated. I've
got it now. >>>>>.... In 1933 it was worth $20,,,, and now worth a minimum of ~$7.5 million just a few years ago........
HMMMMM me thinks that coin stored a lot of fiat money value passed on from your grandfather's generation to the next generation(s) and increased significantly in value along the way.... of course most of that value is as a collectors item as opposed to spot gold price. Still you could take that single worthless piece of gold and buy a lot of valuable beans....
I'd hide that from the government....
--- On Sun, 12/28/08, Clansgian at wmconnect.com <Clansgian at wmconnect.com> wrote:
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